Lib Dems would dominate new authority covering Dacorum forecasts show

The projection, conducted by a county council official after this year’s local elections was obtained by the Local Democracy Reporting Service following a freedom of information request. It estimates that the Liberal Democrats would win 70 seats on the council, against eight for the Conservatives, four for Reform UK and two for Labour.

Vote shares from the 2026 elections and figures from Electoral Calculus were used to compile the projection for the new council, which would cover Dacorum and St Albans.

The Government announced in July that it would abolish Hertfordshire’s existing district, borough and county councils and replace them with four new unitary authorities across the county, taking on all council responsibilities within their respective areas.

But after a number of councils across the country began to explore the possibility of judicial reviews against the proposed shake-up, the government put the plans on pause last month.

If the new councils are created as planned, the areas currently covered by Dacorum and St Albans councils would be represented by a new West Hertfordshire authority.

Currently, there is a large Lib Dem majority at St Albans council while the same party run a minority administration in Dacorum.

The projection for the new council was sent by the unnamed county council official who carried it out to Alex James, head of corporate strategy and policy, and Danielle Bailey, director of corporate strategy and engagement.

It was then forwarded to the county council’s chief executive, Angie Ridgwell, who was described in another email as being “keen to be kept up to speed on predictions”.

While the unnamed council official said confidence in the prediction was “not great”, they added that they thought the shape of the West Herts council was “pretty set”.

They said the results in wards that didn’t vote in this year’s local elections were “very hard to predict”, with Electoral Calculus data “only about 60% accurate” in the wards that did have elections.

Their analysis suggested that Electoral Calculus had “tended to overestimate Reform and Labour and underestimate Conservatives and Lib Dems”.

According to the projection, the other proposed new councils in Hertfordshire would see the Liberal Democrats in control in South West Herts, the Conservatives as the largest party in Eastern Hertfordshire, and Labour as the largest party in Central Hertfordshire.

Similar projections were carried out for the two-unitary and three-unitary models for Hertfordshire that had also been considered by the government.

Under the two-unitary model, the projections suggested the Liberal Democrats would hold a majority in the Western council while the Conservatives and Reform UK would be tied as the largest parties in the Eastern council.

And under the three-unitary model, the projections suggested the Liberal Democrats would hold a majority in the Western council and be the largest party in the Central council, with the Conservatives the largest party in the Eastern council.

A spokesperson for Hertfordshire County Council said: “It is normal practice for officers to develop rough projections of upcoming local elections to aid the council’s planning for their potential results.

“In line with this, work was therefore also done to consider the potential results of shadow authority elections which were due to be held in May 2027.

“They are rough projections based on a snapshot of a moment in time, and should be viewed with caution.

“As with the other projections mentioned, they were not shared more widely nor with elected members.”