GRAMMY Awards 2025: What is the formula to win a Record of the Year GRAMMY Award?
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- The 2025 GRAMMY Awards are set to take place this weekend (February 2 2025.)
- While records could potentially be broken this year by three artists, there is still talk who could win Record of the Year.
- Experts believe they’ve found out the formula for how artists can win the award, based on the last 50 winners.
As the 67th GRAMMY Awards ceremony is set to take place this weekend (February 2 2025), budding musicians may ask themselves how one could win one of the gongs?
Is there a formula, a certain genre or lyrical themes that the Recording Academy looks at specifically when it comes to the top prize at the ceremony - Record of the Year?
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Hide AdStartle, who create and manage strategic audio visual experiences, believes that they have cracked the science when it comes to winning the coveted award, and have gone as far as to make a bold prediction who they think will win Record of the Year this weekend.
So, what’s the science involved when it comes to producing an album worthy of the GRAMMY’s top award, and who do Startle think is going to take it this year - spoiler, it’s not Taylor Swift.
The science part


Startle’s researchers used internal tools to identify the key and tempo (BPM) of the last 50 songs that won the GRAMMY for Record of the Year from 1975 and those nominated for the award at the 2025 ceremony.
They also used Musicstax to identify the energy (%), danceability (%), and positiveness (%) of each song, as well as Wikipedia to categorise each song by genre and the ages of the artists themselves – for bands the age of the youngest musician was recorded.
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Hide AdAll data analysis was carried out between 11th of November 2024 - 18th of November 2024.
What is the formula to win a Record of the Year GRAMMY?
Genre and Tempo
Pop and soft rock dominate the winners’ list, each securing the Record of the Year title six times. Tempo also plays a role, with positive, danceable tracks tending to do better.
Artist Demographics
Solo male artists have historically been the most frequent winners, with 26 wins out of 50. Solo female artists have taken home the award 16 times. In recent years, however, the trend has shifted, with four out of five Record of the Year winners in the past five years being solo female artists.
Diversity in the Voting Body
The GRAMMYs have become more diverse, particularly since a 2019 Diversity and Inclusion Task Force report. This is reflected in the winners, with solo female artists like Billie Eilish (2020, 2021), Lizzo (2023), and Miley Cyrus (2024) taking home the award.
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Hide AdKey Factors for Winning
Positivity, danceability, and energy play significant roles, with songs like Sabrina Carpenter's Espresso hitting all the right notes. Tempo and genre, along with an artist’s age, also impact the chances of winning.
Recent Trends
The analysis of 50 years of GRAMMYs data suggests that songs with positive energy and danceability are more likely to win, and emerging artists from diverse backgrounds are becoming increasingly prominent.
Who do experts think will win the Record of the Year Grammy?
Based on the data from Startle’s analysis, experts believe Sabrina Carpenter has the highest chance of winning Record of the Year at the 67th Annual GRAMMY Awards. Her track Espresso has an 80% probability of winning, according to the findings.
The song shares characteristics with past winners, including genre, positivity, danceability, tempo, and the artist's age (24 years old) along with Carpenter’s rising status, transitioning from a Disney star to a prominent pop artist, also contributes to the narrative of her potential win.
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Hide AdBut, there are other strong contenders based on the formula: The Beatles' Now and Then has a 71% chance, due to its rich historical context, including the involvement of AI-assisted restoration and a performance by Paul McCartney in 2024.
Despite being nominated several times, the Beatles have never won Record of the Year, making this a potentially ground-breaking moment.
Meanwhile, Leeds and Reading Festival headliner Chappell Roan's Good Luck, Babe! and Kendrick Lamar's Not Like Us, both with a 70% probability, also have strong chances.
If you’ve not gotten your 2025 GRAMMY Awards fix after this article and ahead of the ceremony, why not check out our guide to the records that could be broken at this year’s ceremony?
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