First wave of Covid-19 ‘by no means over’, says Herts public health chief

And if there is to be a ‘second wave’ of the virus, it could emerge as early as the autumn.

Hertfordshire director of public health Jim McManus made the remarks while updating members of the Hertfordshire Health and Wellbeing Board on Tuesday (June 23).

After pointing to the downward trends in the number of cases, the reduction in transmission (measured as the ‘R’ number) and the number of calls to 111 Mr McManus said, ‘there was cause for good news’.

But he cautioned that the virus was still circulating in the community and there was need for caution.

“We are not out of the woods yet – we do still have to be cautious,” said Mr McManus.

“We do still have to take the right measures to control the spread of infection.

“The virus is still circulating in the community, but we are not having the significant daily ramp-up of numbers that we were having. The virus is declining, but still around.”

Mr McManus said the the number of new cases was decreasing – at a rate of around 50 per cent every 11 days.

Transmission of the virus (expressed as the ‘R’ number) has decreased in Hertfordshire, from around 4 in February to between 0.7 to 0.9.

And the number of calls to 111, he said, has decreased from around 2500 a day at the virus’ peak – to 200 a day now.

Mr McManus told the board it was not known whether – or not – there would be a second peak.But he outlined two scenarios where the peaks could be gradual or rapid.

In the first scenario, he suggested the easing of restrictions could lead to some people abandoning them – causing rapid community spread through mass gatherings which could ramp-up quickly to a second peak, as early as the autumn.

And, he said, if this was to co-incide with the peak of the flu season, it could overwhelm NHS and social care.

In the second scenario he said there could be a gradual wider wave spreading within populations, rather than geographically, with the most vulnerable being affected.

Mr McManus told the board there was a need to plan for a second wave, while doing everything possible to prevent it.

In addition, he suggested to board members a vaccine may not be available until May next year (2021) – and that a full recovery to the ‘new normal’ may not start until August 2021.

But he stressed that this provisional scenario was dependent on factors such as infection, recovery and immunity.

Mr McManus said he did not want to talk about so-called herd immunity as a deliberate strategy with Covid-19.

But he did say that for population immunity to be reached with any disease infection rates in excess of 65 or 75 per cent would be required.

“I want to talk about population immunity being reached as it is with any disease eventually which goes pandemic, and say – we are some considerable way off that,” he said.

“We need 65 to 75 per cent of the people of the UK to have been infected before we get there and we are nowhere near that as yet – and that will continue to be some time.

“So relying on that as a strategy to control this virus is something we have never done in Hertfordshire.

“Similarly I think the earliest we will get a vaccine widely available – I could be wrong because there are about 130 candidates being tested – will be the end of this financial year

“So we are moving into the long haul of trying to control this virus.”

The Hertfordshire Health and Wellbeing Board brings together representatives from local authorities, health, police and the voluntary sector.

During the meeting the need to continue hygiene measures and social distancing, particularly situations that are high risk, were also highlighted.

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